Track record

Every forecast, scored in public.

A forecast is only worth something if it can be checked. Every squad cost ratio the Orange Ledger publishes is frozen on the day it appears. When new evidence arrives, such as a club's next accounts, the forecast is scored against it and the error is published here, whether it flatters us or not.

1Frozen when published. The figure in the original article is never rewritten. Corrections are dated at the top of the article.

2Scored against later evidence. Results, filed accounts and the League's own test outcomes, as each arrives.

3Our own errors shown separately. A mistake in our method is published as a correction, apart from what the new evidence changed.

Manchester United

Tested 30 September 2026 against Manchester United plc results for 2025/26 (Form 20-F, 30 September 2026), converted from group to club company on the 2024/25 relationship. An interim test: the club company’s own accounts will be the full test.

Forecast of record58.7%20 Sept 2026

Our method corrected59.6%+0.9 pts, our error

After the new evidence58.5%-1.1 pts, new information

Net change-0.2 ptsforecast to latest estimate

What the forecast assumed	Forecast	Evidence	Error
Commercial income, 2025/26 (club company)	£250.0m	£256.5m	-2.5%
Matchday income, 2025/26 (club company)	£155.0m	£155.3m	-0.2%
Squad book value, 30 June 2026 (like for like)	£435.1m	£425.3m	+2.3%

Profit on player sales for 2025/26 was forecast at GBP 54.3m and reported at GBP 46.8m because United booked Rasmus Hojlund's permanent sale in 2026/27, not 2025/26 as the forecast assumed. It stays inside the three-year average either way, which moved from GBP 38.6m to GBP 39.9m.
Wages were not forecast for 2025/26 (the forecast rolled 2024/25 straight to 2026/27), so they cannot be scored. Rebuilding from 2025/26 gives GBP 9.3m more than the corrected 2024/25 route; the gap is unexplained and shown, not forced away.

5 October 2026 basis restatement: the same 2025/26 checkpoint is 57.6% on the subsequently adopted group reporting perimeter. The frozen forecast of record remains 58.7%.

6 October 2026 correction: the same checkpoint is 57.5% after a correction to the staff costs the player-wage share is measured against. The frozen forecast of record remains 58.7%.

2 November 2026 correction: the same checkpoint is 59.0%. United booked Rasmus Hojlund's sale in 2025/26 (Form 20-F operating review and note 33), not in 2026/27 as the note above says, so the update had taken him out of the reported book value a second time and counted his profit again. The frozen forecast of record remains 58.7%.

Read the full test → · The original forecast →

All forecasts

Squad cost ratio for the 1 March 2027 test. The forecast of record is frozen as published in the engine's first independently timestamped release, on 30 September 2026, and is what each test scores. The current estimate is today's figure after any dated correction, shown beside it so a change is never silent.

Club	Forecast of record	Current estimate	Published	Status	Article
Arsenal	56.8%	60.7%corrected	16 Sept 2026	Awaiting 2025/26 accounts	Read →
Aston Villa	70.5%	74.2%corrected	17 Sept 2026	Awaiting 2025/26 accounts	Read →
Bournemouth	80.8%	85.4%corrected	12 Sept 2026	Awaiting 2025/26 accounts	Read →
Brentford	81.2%	81.6%corrected	12 Sept 2026	Awaiting 2025/26 accounts	Read →
Brighton	76.9%	79.1%corrected	13 Sept 2026	Awaiting 2025/26 accounts	Read →
Chelsea	87.6%	91.3%corrected	16 Sept 2026	Awaiting 2025/26 accounts	Read →
Coventry City	61.3%	63.5%corrected	24 Sept 2026	Awaiting 2025/26 accounts	Read →
Crystal Palace	72.8%	79.3%corrected	13 Sept 2026	Awaiting 2025/26 accounts	Read →
Everton	73.3%	72.5%corrected	13 Sept 2026	Awaiting 2025/26 accounts	Read →
Fulham	102.0%	105.3%corrected	12 Sept 2026	Awaiting 2025/26 accounts	Read →
Hull City	64.0%	66.4%corrected	25 Sept 2026	Awaiting 2025/26 accounts	Read →
Ipswich Town	88.9%	97.9%corrected	25 Sept 2026	Awaiting 2025/26 accounts	Read →
Leeds	64.6%	68.6%corrected	21 Sept 2026	Awaiting 2025/26 accounts	Read →
Liverpool	71.5%	73.6%corrected	19 Sept 2026	Awaiting 2025/26 accounts	Read →
Manchester City	75.4%	74.4%corrected	18 Sept 2026	Awaiting 2025/26 accounts	Read →
Manchester United	58.7%	56.9%corrected	20 Sept 2026	Tested (interim)	Read →
Newcastle	77.1%	81.7%corrected	13 Sept 2026	Awaiting 2025/26 accounts	Read →
Nottingham Forest	99.4%	97.5%corrected	13 Sept 2026	Awaiting 2025/26 accounts	Read →
Sunderland	61.5%	60.5%corrected	21 Sept 2026	Awaiting 2025/26 accounts	Read →
Tottenham	81.7%	80.4%corrected	19 Sept 2026	Awaiting 2025/26 accounts	Read →

The forecast of record is copied unaltered from the engine's V2BC release record, which carries an RFC 3161 timestamp; earlier versions of each forecast are recorded in the club's article and the changelog. Independent estimates, not official figures.