Brentford's squad cost ratio: a squad that costs more than its countable revenue, and one summer holding it up

Update, 23 September 2026. The figures are unchanged, and the population has since been reconciled against the Premier League’s own squad returns, so they are no longer marked pending. Earlier updates on 15 and 18 September rebuilt all three windows against the club’s own announcements and completed a wage roll-forward that had skipped January 2026; that work stands.

Correction, 24 September 2026. Frank Onyeka’s sale was recorded as a July 2026 move to Ipswich; the buying club’s own announcement shows he joined Coventry City on 29 June 2026, which falls in Brentford’s 2025/26 financial year. The same £6.8m profit moves one year earlier. The headline, the three-year average and the probability are unchanged; the range’s lower end moves from 80.8% to 80.7%, and the 1 March 2029 roll-forward from 105.3% to 106.4%.

Correction, 25 September 2026. The ratio is 84.5%, from 84.2%, after every departure was rebuilt from Brentford’s own announcements. Mark Flekken’s sale to Bayer Leverkusen is now taken at the reported €10m base, £8.45m, rather than £11.0m, a figure for which no source could be found; that cuts the profit on the sale from about £5.5m to £2.8m. His registration moved on 1 July 2025, when his Leverkusen contract began, so the sale stays in 2025/26. Chanse Headman’s move to Harrogate was a free transfer, not an estimated £250,000, and Jordan Henderson was released rather than sold. Nine academy and B-team sales that were missing are added, none of them priced. Two Brentford B registrations, Theodore Mawene and Max McKnight, were released in June 2026 with book value still on them, and the write-off had not been recorded; it is now included. Before player trading is unchanged at 107.2%. Green headroom falls to £1.16m, the range is 81.1% to 88.4%, 46% of modelled outcomes land above 85% rather than 41%, and the 2028 roll-forward is 87.7%. The argument is unchanged, and the margin is thinner.

Correction, 26 September 2026. The ratio is 81.2%, from 84.5%, and 103.1% before player trading, from 107.2%. Michael Kayode, Caoimhín Kelleher and Romelle Donovan are treated as registrations already held at 30 June 2025: none appears among the first-team registrations Brentford’s accounts list as acquired after the year end, and Donovan is separately described as an existing B-team player. On that evidence their book value is inside the filed figure, and each is now charged once. Amortisation is £80.9m, green headroom £9.5m, the range 78.0% to 84.9%, 9% of modelled outcomes land above 85%, and the stress case is 93.6%. The 2028 roll-forward is 84.3% and the 2029 one 102.2%.

Corrections, 1 and 2 October 2026. The ratio is 81.3%, from 81.2%, and 102.7% before player trading, from 103.1%. Agents’ fees now use the FA’s published figure for Brentford, £12.7m, which this article had given as about £12.5m. Two statements in the correction of 25 September are withdrawn: Theodore Mawene was not released, and is now charged alongside Kayode, Kelleher and Donovan; and Max McKnight joined as a free agent, so neither departure produced a write-off. Contract extensions are now recorded for Mbeumo, Wissa, Onyeka, Pinnock, Nørgaard and Roerslev, so each carried a little book value when sold, where the article had said nil or fully amortised. The squad cost is £205.4m and the three-year average of sale profit £52.6m. Green headroom is £9.4m, about 9% of modelled outcomes land above 85%, the stress case is 93.6%, and 77% of the pool comes from a single summer. On the expiry clock the 2028 test is 84.3% and the 2029 test 101.9%. The conclusion does not change.

Correction, 2 October 2026. The sentence on the residual’s cross-check said the two methods agree. It now dates the player-by-player check to the 15 September rebuild, which has not been re-run, gives its figures (about £130m of the £182.4m book value identified; a pool charge of £49.6m to £54.0m against £49.2m), and gives the residual on the engine at V2BI, £39.9m. No figure in the article changes.

Update, 3 October 2026. The ratio is unchanged at 81.3%, and at 102.7% before player trading. Two inputs behind it were corrected and their effects cancel. Counted, from archived match reports. The rule divides last season’s receipts by last season’s home matches. Brentford played 20 (19 league and one cup), where we had assumed 21. Re-estimated, by our method. Last season’s matchday receipts are not yet filed. We had carried £13.5m; the estimate is now £12.8m: the filed 2024/25 figure of £12.4m, scaled for the change in home matches (cup ties from 3 to 1), with a cup tie counted as 0.15 of a league match and a European match as 0.25, plus 5% for the year. The method, and how far it could be out, is set out in How we estimate matchday revenue. Matchday revenue under the rule is £13.4m, from £13.5m. Also moved: green headroom is £9.3m, from £9.4m; and the stress case is 93.7%, from 93.6%. A separate review of agents’ fees on signings since the last accounts is under way and may raise this figure; we will report its result.

Correction, 4 October 2026. The ratio is 83.9%, from 81.3%, and 106.2% before player trading, from 102.7%. The squad cost rule defines three things in its own terms, and in each we had used the figure from a club’s accounts (Three definitions in the squad cost rule, and what they change). What a registration costs. The rule counts everything a club pays in connection with a transfer: the fee, the League’s 4% transfer levy and agents’ fees. For players signed since Brentford’s last accounts we now count the reported fee plus 12%. Squad cost is £208.8m, from £205.4m, and the three-year average of sale profit is £52.3m, from £52.6m, because a player sold now leaves at a higher book value. This is the result of the review of agents’ fees that our earlier notes promised. Merchandise. The rule counts merchandise at gross profit, sales less the cost of the goods, where we had counted sales in full. Brentford’s accounts give no merchandise figure, so we estimate the cost of the goods from the clubs that do: £1.5m, in a range of £0.6m to £3.3m. Cup prize money. The rule counts a three-year average of what a club received from the FA Cup and the EFL Cup. We had entered £2.0m for Brentford, a figure with no calculation behind it. Rebuilt from Brentford’s cup ties in the last three seasons and the FA’s published prize fund and broadcast fees, it is £0.2m, in a range of £0.2m to £2.0m. The figure is provisional: the EFL publishes no prize money, some broadcast fees are not published, and the top of the range allows for a share of the gate at away ties, which the rule may or may not count. The revenue the rule counts is £196.7m, from £200.0m. Also moved: the range is 80.5 to 87.5%, from 78.0 to 84.9%; green headroom is £2.8m, from £9.3m; the stress case is 96.3%, from 93.7%; the chance that the ratio is above 85% is about 36%, from about 9%. The forward section has changed: on frozen costs and revenue the 2028 test is 87.0%, above the line, where it was 84.3%, just inside. The 2029 test is 105.3%, from 101.9%.

Correction, 5 October 2026. The ratio is 84.1%, from 83.9%, and 106.5% before player trading, from 106.2%. We now measure each contract from the day the player was registered to the day it ends. A player who signs in August on a five-year deal has a contract of four years and ten months, because contracts end on 30 June; we had spread his cost over five full years. 20 of Brentford’s contract lengths change, 20 of them against an end date we have derived as the 30 June the announced length points to, where no source states the date. The yearly charge for registrations is £84.0m, from £83.4m. The range is 80.7% to 87.8%, from 80.5% to 87.5%. About 39% of our modelled outcomes are above the 85% line, from 36%. No threshold is crossed. Most clubs move because contract costs are now measured to their actual or derived expiry dates; six also move for club-specific reasons. See the engine changelog.

Correction, 7 October 2026. The ratio is 84.2%, from 84.1%, and 106.5% before player trading, unchanged. Three signing dates now follow Brentford’s own announcements: Mamadou Sangare on 31 July 2026, El Hadji Malick Diouf on 27 August and Jaidon Anthony on 7 July. The yearly charge for registrations is £84.1m, from £84.0m. The range is 80.8% to 87.8%, from 80.7% to 87.8%. About 39% of our modelled outcomes are above the 85% line, unchanged; the estimate does not reliably tell which side of the line the club is on. No threshold is crossed. See the engine changelog.

Correction, 9 October 2026. The ratio is 83.8%, from 84.2%, and 105.9% before player trading, from 106.5%. Last season’s commercial revenue is now estimated by one published method, the same for every club. Brentford’s 2025/26 accounts are not filed, so the figure is an estimate. We had £22.0m, a judgement of ours. It is now £23.1m: the £19.4m filed for 2024/25, grown by 19.4%, the rate the method gives a commercial income of that size (how we estimate last season’s commercial revenue). It is drawn between £13.6m and £36.7m, where we had drawn 7% either way: the new span comes from how far forecasts of this kind have missed in past seasons. The range is 79.5% to 87.5%, from 80.8% to 87.8%. About 31% of our modelled outcomes are above the 85% line, from 39%: the estimate does not reliably tell which side of the line Brentford are on. The published ratio crosses no threshold. The stress case is now described as what it is: the worst case on costs alone, with revenue held at the central estimate. This article said that on frozen costs and revenue the 2028 test was above the line, at 87.3%; it now gives 86.9%, within two points of the line, and does not place it on either side. The table of later tests holds this season’s revenue fixed and does not forecast next season’s commercial revenue; it is now labelled so. See the engine changelog.

Clarification, 15 October 2026. Wording only; no figure changed. The ranges in this article are assumption ranges, the spread of the model’s inputs between assumed bounds, not calibrated or confidence intervals, and the shares of modelled outcomes above or below a threshold quoted in the notes above are withdrawn.

Updated 16 October 2026: loans out now recorded; wage relief shown in ranges. The central figure is unchanged at 83.8%. Brentford’s players out on loan are now recorded. Nobody has said how much of their wages the borrowing clubs pay, so the possible saving widens the assumption range rather than moving the central figure: the range is 77.3% to 87.1%, from 79.5% to 87.5%, and still spans 85%, so the estimate does not reliably tell which side of the line Brentford are on. The stress case, the worst case on costs alone, is 99.5%, from 96.1%. See the engine changelog.

Correction, 22 October 2026. The ratio is 82.3%, from 83.8%, and 106.8% before player trading, from 105.9%. Sales are now counted by transfer window, as the rule requires. The rule averages the profit on sales in the six most recent windows (Rule A.1.53), so the period for the March 2027 test starts on 2 February 2024, not on 1 July 2024, where Brentford’s 2024/25 year begins. Brentford’s 2023/24 accounts date David Raya’s permanent move to Arsenal to June 2024, inside that period, although the clubs announced it on 3 and 4 July: about £22.3m of profit, at the reported £27m with no book value left and less the share reported as owed to Blackburn, which we had not counted. Mark Flekken’s sale was counted twice. Brentford announced it on 2 June 2025, and its 2024/25 accounts show it was booked before the 30 June year end, so it is inside the filed £27.2m. We had also counted it in 2025/26 and taken his book value out of the filed £182.4m a second time. The correction of 25 September, which said his sale stays in 2025/26, was wrong.

• Moved: the three-year average of sale profit is £59.0m, from £52.3m, and player trading is worth 24.5 points, from 22.2. Amortisation is £85.9m, from £84.1m. Green headroom is £7.0m, from £3.0m. The range is 76.0% to 85.4%, from 77.3% to 87.1%, and still spans 85%. The stress case is 97.8%, from 99.5%. 68% of the pool comes from one summer, from 77%, and 69% from one financial year, from 80%.
• Later tests, now counted by window: 87.7% at the March 2028 test, from 86.9%, and 105.1% at the March 2029 test, unchanged. Raya’s sale leaves at the 2028 test; the summer 2025 window, Flekken’s June sale with it, leaves at the 2029 test.
• The twenty clubs together come to 74.9%, from 75.6%, with this release’s corrections at the other clubs.
• Editorial: a club at or below 85% at the March test receives a Positive Feedback Notice then (Rule C.3), where the article had said throughout the season. The January-sale example states its 5% allowance for the costs of a sale. The B-team table ties a fee-paying signing’s cost to his registration as a Contract Player. The revenue section no longer describes the merit payment as revenue Brentford did not earn. Internal engine versions are removed from the text. The accounts table gives 2023/24 as well. The closing summary list, which repeated the figures above it, is removed. The lead chart and the cover are redrawn with these figures, and the chart has a phone version.

Correction, 25 October 2026. The headline table gives the largest single transfer window’s share of the sale-profit average, 68%, from 69% for the largest financial year: the rule counts windows (Rule A.1.53), and the article, the description and the cover already used 68%. The ratio, 82.3%, is unchanged. Three other statements are corrected. The player-share range was said to be “under review”; no review is in progress, and it now says what is true, that the range cannot be tested from the filings. The sources said the two amortisation methods agree closely enough to publish, which the note of 2 October withdrew; they now say the player-by-player check was made at the rebuild of 15 September and has not been re-run. And the borrowing secured on League cashflows was said to match Everton’s and Bournemouth’s; Bournemouth’s article describes no such borrowing, so the comparison now names Everton only.

Correction, 26 October 2026. The ratio is 81.6%, from 82.3%; 106.8% before player trading is unchanged. The compensation Brentford received for releasing their head coach now counts. A fee one club pays another for a head coach is part of the squad cost, spread over his contract (Rule A.1.22(d)); compensation a club receives for releasing one counts with the profit on player sales (Rule A.1.29(g)). We had counted neither. Brentford’s accounts for 2024/25 book £6.7m of guaranteed compensation for the departure of key staff as other operating income; we take it to be for Thomas Frank’s move to Tottenham in June 2025. The three-year average is £61.2m, from £59.0m, and player trading is worth 25.3 points, from 24.5; the central figure is 3.4 points below the line, from 2.7; the headroom is £8.9m, from £7.0m; the range is 75.3% to 84.7%, from 76.0% to 85.4%, so it now ends just below the line, where it spanned it; the stress case 96.9%, from 97.8%. The 2028 test, which still holds the payment, is 86.9%, from 87.7%, on an average of £45.4m, from £43.2m; 2029’s 105.1% is unchanged.

Correction, 28 October 2026. Brentford’s ratio is unchanged at 81.6%. Elsewhere in the article, the twenty clubs together come to 75.1%, from 75.0%. We checked every transfer in our records against published sources and corrected sixteen entries at eleven clubs where the club’s announcement or a reputable report, read on the page, gives a different fee, contract length or date. The corrections move Arsenal, Chelsea, Sunderland, Crystal Palace and Tottenham up, and Coventry, Nottingham Forest and Bournemouth down. Brentford’s own entries change too: Sam Sene-Richardson’s contract runs to June 2028, without the club’s option year, and Darwin Guagua’s to June 2031 (Rule A.1.22(c)); no figure in the article moves with them. The margin of the headroom to the squad cost is 4.2%, where the article had kept 3.3% from the figures before 26 October.

Correction, 31 October 2026. The rule’s own revenue is worth 13.8 percentage points, from 13.7. Ben Wilson’s contract runs to June 2028, not 2029, from Brentford’s own announcement. The twenty clubs together come to 75.3%, from 75.1%, because Chelsea’s and Liverpool’s filed sale profit replaces our modelled figures and 19 transfer entries are corrected across the league. The ratio, 81.6%, is unchanged. Figures that follow from these are restated with them in the text. The correction does not reverse the article’s conclusion.

Correction, 1 November 2026. Brentford’s ratio is unchanged at 81.6%. The article said the top of the range, 84.7%, was above the 85% line; it is below it, and the lead chart’s description said the range crossed the line. The article called the £6.7m compensation for the release of the head coach as if the accounts said so. They say “settlement agreements” and “key staff”, the sum is understood to cover members of his coaching team as well, and the rule counts only compensation for a Manager. The article now says so, counts all of it as our central estimate because Frank is the likely source of most of it, and gives the ratio without it, 82.3%. The merit payment was labelled revenue added by the rule; it is revenue Brentford earned by finishing ninth, and the label now says what it measures. The 25.3-point effect includes the £6.7m, and is now labelled so where it was called player trading alone. The sources said no club in the sample discloses its players’ wage bill; Crystal Palace publishes one, so the sentence now speaks only of Brentford. The sources also now list Rules A.1.22(d), A.1.29(g) and A.1.53, on which the calculation relies. A section repeating the squad-list check is removed; the check stays in the sources.