Nottingham Forest's squad cost ratio: far above the line before player trading, and almost nothing from the rule

Update, 22 September 2026. The population has since been reconciled against the Premier League’s own squad returns, so the figures are no longer marked pending. Earlier updates on 15 and 18 September rebuilt every window as a transaction census and completed a wage roll-forward that had skipped January 2026; those moved the ratio from 98.7% to 106.3% and then to 105.1%, and that work stands.

Correction, 25 September 2026. Forest’s transfer record was rebuilt from the clubs’ own announcements, which corrected three things. Thirteen players sold since the June 2025 year end had not been recorded as sales: Ramón Sosa, Danilo, Lewis O’Brien, Matt Turner, Dale Taylor, Carlos Miguel and Marko Stamenić in summer 2025, and Ben Perry, Jamie McDonnell, Adam Berry, Isaac Davies, Joe Gardner and Omar Richards. Because they were still carried as Forest players, part of their book value was being spread across this season as amortisation, and the profit on their sales was missing; four of the fees were never disclosed and are carried at nil, so that profit is understated if anything. Six departure dates were also brought into line with the completion dates in the announcements, including David Carmo’s sale to Olympiacos, which completed on 30 June 2026 and so belongs to 2025/26. And Jota Silva’s move to Olympiacos, which the reconstruction had treated as a sale, is a season-long loan with an option exercisable at the end of the campaign, so he remains a Forest registration and his cost is still spread across this season. Separately, James McAtee’s fee is now the £22m guaranteed at signing, not £25m: the deal rises to £30m only with add-ons, and £25m was Forest’s own opening bid, which Manchester City rejected. Together these lower the squad cost from £275.5m to £267.7m and raise the three-year average of sale profit from £48.5m to £55.6m, taking the ratio from 105.1% to 99.4%, and 125.2% before player trading. Forest remain above the 85% green line, by £38.7m, so the regulatory outcome is unchanged; the range is 95.7% to 103.1% and the stress case 111.2%. The comparison with Bournemouth uses Bournemouth’s current figures.

Update, 26 September 2026. Forest’s own figures are unchanged. The comparison with Bournemouth uses its corrected figures: 80.8%, 100.5% before player trading and 130.8% without the revenue the rule adds, which is worth 30.3 points there, from 30.2.

Corrections, 1 and 2 October 2026. The ratio is 96.7%, from 99.4%, and 122.1% before player trading, from 125.2%. The agents’ fees were wrong: this article said they came from an FA figure of about £22m, but the FA’s published figure for Forest is £12.2m. David Carmo’s fee is the €11m (£9.3m) Porto reported, dated from his signing on 25 August 2024; Anthony Elanga’s and Taiwo Awoniyi’s signings are dated from their completions; and Stefan Ortega joined on a free transfer. The squad cost is £261.0m and the three-year average of sale profit £56.0m. Forest are £31.7m above the green line, the range is 93.3% to 100.4% and the stress case 108.0%. On frozen costs the 2028 test is 97.6%. The comparison with Bournemouth uses its current figures: before the revenue the rule adds, Forest’s cost base is about six points lighter than Bournemouth’s, and its ratio about 14 points higher. The conclusion does not change: Forest are above the green line on every modelled draw, and no draw reaches the red line.

Correction, 3 October 2026. The ratio is 97.0%, from 96.7%, and 122.5% before player trading, from 122.1%. Counted, from archived match reports. The rule counts the average number of home FA Cup and League Cup matches over the last three seasons, rounded up. Forest played seven (four, three and none), so the rule counts three, where we had assumed two. The rule divides last season’s receipts by last season’s home matches. Forest played 27 (19 league and eight European), where we had assumed 26. Re-estimated, by our method. Last season’s matchday receipts are not yet filed. We had carried £24.0m; the estimate is now £23.0m: the filed 2024/25 figure of £20.3m, scaled for the change in home matches (cup ties from 3 to 0 and European matches from 0 to 8), with a cup tie counted as 0.15 of a league match and a European match as 0.25, plus 5% for the year. The method, and how far it could be out, is set out in How we estimate matchday revenue. Matchday revenue under the rule is £18.7m, from £19.4m. Forest’s website carries no report of one of the seven cup ties, with Burnley in August 2023; a published match report is the evidence. Also moved: the range is 93.5 to 100.6%, from 93.3 to 100.4%; the squad cost is £32.2m above the green threshold, from £31.7m; and the stress case is 108.3%, from 108.0%. A separate review of agents’ fees on signings since the last accounts is under way and may raise this figure; we will report its result.

Update, 3 October 2026 (second of the day). Forest’s own figures are unchanged. In the comparison with Bournemouth, Bournemouth’s ratio is now 81.7%, from 82.8%; 100.3% before player trading, from 101.6%; and 130.5% without the revenue the rule adds, from 132.1%. That revenue is now worth 30.1 points there, from 30.5, and player-sale profits 18.6 points, from 18.8. Before the revenue the rule adds, Forest’s cost base is now about four points below Bournemouth’s, from about five, and Forest’s ratio ends about 15 points higher, from about 14, after a signing that had been charged twice was corrected. A separate review of agents’ fees on signings since the last accounts is under way and may raise this figure; we will report its result.

Correction, 4 October 2026. The ratio is 102.5%, from 97.0%, and 129.1% before player trading, from 122.5%. The squad cost rule defines three things in its own terms, and in each we had used the figure from a club’s accounts (Three definitions in the squad cost rule, and what they change). What a registration costs. The rule counts everything a club pays in connection with a transfer: the fee, the League’s 4% transfer levy and agents’ fees. For players signed since Forest’s last accounts we now count the reported fee plus 12%. Squad cost is £266.3m, from £261.0m, and the three-year average of sale profit is £53.5m, from £56.0m, because a player sold now leaves at a higher book value. This is the result of the review of agents’ fees that our earlier notes promised. Merchandise. The rule counts merchandise at gross profit, sales less the cost of the goods, where we had counted sales in full. Forest’s accounts give merchandise sales of £10.1m and not their cost; we take off £4.5m, on an estimated margin of 55%, in a range of £3.5m to £6.6m. Cup prize money. The rule counts a three-year average of what a club received from the FA Cup and the EFL Cup. We had entered £3.0m for Forest, a figure with no calculation behind it. Rebuilt from Forest’s cup ties in the last three seasons and the FA’s published prize fund and broadcast fees, it is £0.8m, in a range of £0.6m to £2.1m. The figure is provisional: the EFL publishes no prize money, some broadcast fees are not published, and the top of the range allows for a share of the gate at away ties, which the rule may or may not count. The revenue the rule counts is £206.4m, from £213.1m. Also moved: the range is 98.7 to 106.3%, from 93.5 to 100.6%; the overshoot of the 85% threshold is £45.4m, from £32.2m; the stress case is 114.0%, from 108.3%. Forest remain above the green threshold and below the red one.

Correction, 4 October 2026 (second of the day). This article gave Nottingham Forest’s amortisation for 2023/24 as £46.0m. The club’s accounts print £61.7m (note 7); £46.0m was another club’s figure, copied into our record in error. Amortisation has therefore risen by about two thirds in two years, not more than doubled. The squad cost ratio and every other figure in the article are unchanged: the 2023/24 figure is not used in the calculation.

Correction, 5 October 2026. The ratio is 103.4%, from 102.5%, and 130.2% before player trading, from 129.1%. We now measure each contract from the day the player was registered to the day it ends. A player who signs in August on a five-year deal has a contract of four years and ten months, because contracts end on 30 June; we had spread his cost over five full years. 24 of Nottingham Forest’s contract lengths change, 14 of them against an end date we have derived as the 30 June the announced length points to, where no source states the date. The yearly charge for registrations is £106.6m, from £104.2m. The range is 99.6% to 107.2%, from 98.7% to 106.3%. No threshold is crossed. Most clubs move because contract costs are now measured to their actual or derived expiry dates; six also move for club-specific reasons. See the engine changelog. This estimate is built on the club company’s accounts. The women’s and netball teams sit in the parent’s group accounts, which add about £1.2m of revenue; counting the women’s share would lower this ratio slightly.

Correction, 9 October 2026. The ratio is 102.3%, from 103.4%, and 128.5% before player trading, from 130.2%. Last season’s commercial revenue is now estimated by one published method, the same for every club. Forest’s 2025/26 accounts are not filed, so the figure is an estimate. We had £42.0m, a judgement of ours. It is now £44.8m: the £38.5m filed for 2024/25, grown by 16.4%, the rate the method gives a commercial income of that size (how we estimate last season’s commercial revenue). It is drawn between £29.0m and £66.4m, where we had drawn 7% either way: the new span comes from how far forecasts of this kind have missed in past seasons. The range is 96.4% to 106.9%, from 99.6% to 107.2%. The published ratio crosses no threshold. This article said that none of the modelled draws crosses the 115% red line; it now says that about three in every 10,000 do. The sentence that said last season’s commercial figure had been raised by the European campaign is replaced: the commercial estimate contains no specific allowance for that campaign. The stress case is now described as what it is: the worst case on costs alone, with revenue held at the central estimate. The table of later tests holds this season’s revenue fixed and does not forecast next season’s commercial revenue; it is now labelled so. See the engine changelog.

Clarification, 15 October 2026. Wording only; no figure changed. The model’s probabilities in this article are not statistically calibrated: the ranges are assumption ranges, the spread of the model’s inputs between assumed bounds, not confidence intervals. The notes above that quote a share of modelled draws on either side of the 115% red line, or “every modelled draw” above 85%, are kept as published and are withdrawn as statements of probability; the assumption range of 96.4% to 106.9% is below the red line and above the green line.

Updated 16 October 2026: loans out now recorded; wage relief shown in ranges.

Correction, 16 October 2026. The ratio is 99.3%, from 102.3%, and 124.5% before player trading, from 128.5%. Forest remain above the green line and below the red one. Two things moved it. Gustavo Sá is now recorded as sold, not loaned. This article said Forest signed him from Famalicão on 30 July 2026 and loaned him to Olympiacos the next day, so we counted his amortisation as Forest’s. Olympiacos announced him that day as their own signing, with no mention of Forest or of a loan, and he is on none of Forest’s squad pages, its list of players out on loan, or the League’s squad list of 3 September. We now record him as sold to Olympiacos on 30 July 2026. No fee has been published, so the sale is recorded at the £17.1m Forest were reported to have paid, which is an estimate: his amortisation leaves this season’s squad cost, and the sale books a loss of £2.0m, because the cost of a registration includes the 12% we add to the fee. Together that is 1.2 points. Omari Hutchinson’s wage. He joined AC Milan on loan on 31 August 2026, and Milan are reported to pay his wage in full; the report is relayed, not confirmed by either club. On a salary estimated from what Forest paid for him, that takes 1.7 points off. Forest’s other players out on loan are now recorded too. Nobody has said how much of their wages the borrowing clubs pay, so that saving widens the range and leaves the central figure where it is. The squad cost is £260.4m, from £268.7m; the three-year average of sale profit is £52.9m, from £53.6m; the overshoot of the 85% threshold is £37.6m, from £45.4m; the range is 90.5% to 102.0%, from 96.4% to 106.9%; the stress case is 112.3%, from 113.6%. Elliot Anderson’s sale is now about 56% of the three-year pool, from 55%. See the engine changelog.

Correction, 23 October 2026. This article estimated Nottingham Forest’s ratio at 99.3%; the corrected figure is 97.6%, and 124.5% before player trading is unchanged. We had missed £13.5m of profit on player sales. The rule averages the profit or loss on sales in the six most recent transfer windows (Rules A.1.13 and A.1.53), and for the March 2027 test that period starts on 2 February 2024. We had averaged three financial years starting on 1 July 2024, so Forest’s sales between February and June 2024 were left out: Odysseas Vlachodimos to Newcastle, Remo Freuler’s loan to Bologna made permanent, and Richie Laryea to Toronto. Nothing in Forest’s own figures changed; the error was in how we read the rule.

• Moved: the three-year average of sale profit is £57.4m, from £52.9m, worth 26.8 percentage points, from 25.1. Squad cost is £33.7m a year above the green line, from £37.6m. The range is 89.0% to 100.3%, from 90.5% to 102.0%. The stress case is 110.4%, from 112.3%. Anderson’s sale is 51% of the pool, from 56%, and the gap to Bournemouth about 12 percentage points, from 14.
• Later tests: the figures for the 2028 and 2029 tests are withdrawn while they are rechecked, because they took whole financial years out of the average. The 2030 row, with no sale profit left at all, is unchanged at 124.5%.
• The conclusion holds: Forest are above the green line on the central estimate and across the range, and below the red one. The twenty clubs together come to 74.9%, from 75.6%. The lead chart and the cover are redrawn with these figures. See the engine changelog.

Correction, 23 October 2026 (second of the day). The ratio at the 2028 test is 100.3%, from 100.2%, and at the 2029 test 108.1%, from 108.3%. Each test now averages the sales of the six transfer windows before it (Rule A.1.53), rather than whole financial years, so a year’s February to June sales stay in the average for one test longer. The 2028 test counts Forest’s sales from February to June 2025, a £0.9m loss, with the two years that follow, an average of £50.3m; the 2029 test counts £1.5m of sales from February to June 2026 with the current year, £31.7m. The 1 March 2027 figure of 97.6%, and the 2030 row of 124.5%, are unchanged. See the engine changelog.

Correction, 25 October 2026. The ratio, 97.6%, is unchanged. The article said amortisation has risen by about two thirds in two years while revenue rose by about a sixth. The two thirds runs from FY24’s £61.7m to the £102.7m estimated now, which is three years, and the sixth was one year’s growth in turnover, FY24 to FY25. The sentence now gives each span. The list of notes also holds two of 16 October: the first, which records no figure, was published in error beside the second, which gives the change that day, 102.3% to 99.3%. Both stay, because the notes are a record; the second is the one that counts.

Correction, 26 October 2026. The ratio is unchanged at 97.6%. Forest’s loan income is now in the range. Fees a club receives for lending players count with the profit on player sales (the guidance to Rule A.1.29(g)). The filed accounts give a total for loan income without saying how much is fee and how much is wages recharged, so the central figure counts none of it and the range allows anything from none to all of it; only income from 2 February 2024 counts (Rule A.1.53), and 2025/26’s waits for the accounts. Forest filed £4.4m for 2024/25 and £15.5m for 2023/24. The range is 88.6% to 99.9%, from 89.0% to 100.3%. Elsewhere in the article, the twenty clubs together come to 75.0%, from 74.9%. Fees paid and received for head coaches now count, at Manchester City, Chelsea, Brentford, Ipswich, Newcastle and Crystal Palace (Rules A.1.22(d) and A.1.29(g)). Bournemouth’s range, quoted for comparison, is 78.4% to 87.0%, from 79.0% to 87.6%, for the same reason.

Correction, 28 October 2026. The ratio is 97.4%, from 97.6%, and 124.1% before player trading, from 124.5%. We checked every transfer in our records against published sources and corrected sixteen entries at eleven clubs where the club’s announcement or a reputable report, read on the page, gives a different fee, contract length or date. Daniel Munoz cost £20m guaranteed, not £22m, with up to £2m of add-ons. A fee counts what is payable or has fallen due, and an add-on only once it is due (Rules A.1.43 and A.1.22(c)), so add-ons not yet due now count in the range only. Mason Ayre’s scholarship runs to June 2028, not June 2029. Amortisation is £101.9m, from £102.7m, and the squad cost £259.6m, from £260.4m, £33.0m over the 85% line, from £33.7m. The range is 88.4% to 99.7%, from 88.6% to 99.9%; without the revenue the rule adds the ratio is 128.7%, from 129.1%. On frozen costs the later tests are 100.0%, 107.8% and 124.1%, from 100.3%, 108.1% and 124.5%. Bournemouth’s figures, quoted for comparison, follow Bournemouth’s correction of today. In the amortisation table the summer 2026 signings still at Forest are £99.9m of registrations, from £102.0m, charging £28.5m, from £29.3m, and the summer 2025 signings £193.1m, where £193.0m was printed.

Correction, 31 October 2026. Nicolo Savona’s fee is £11.3m, from £11.2m: the EUR 13m Juventus state, at the rate of the day. Amortisation is £102.0m, from £101.9m, and the summer 2025 cohort £193.2m, from £193.1m. The twenty clubs together come to 75.3%, from 75.1%, because Chelsea’s and Liverpool’s filed sale profit replaces our modelled figures and 19 transfer entries are corrected across the league. The ratio, 97.4%, is unchanged. Figures that follow from these are restated with them in the text. The correction does not reverse the article’s conclusion.

Correction, 1 November 2026. Forest’s ratio is unchanged at 97.4%. The article said the seventh-place finish leaves the three-year merit mean after the March 2027 test. It stays in for the 2028 test and leaves for 2029. The article said note 28’s £52.5m records cash received; the note says income “taking into account the applicable levies and sell on clauses”, and does not say what that measures, so the article now quotes it. The label “revenue added by the rule” is replaced with what the figure measures, merit above the fifteenth-place floor. The article said this European campaign’s revenue appears in the estimates for this season; the prize money does not count, and the home matches feed the gate figure. Bournemouth’s trading effect was given as 19.7 points; it is 19.6. The sentence that no club discloses its players’ wage bill now speaks only of Forest, and the player-share range is no longer described as under review. The sources now list Rules A.1.29(g) and A.1.53. Two repeating sections, on the squad lists and on what the article says, are removed; the squad-list check stays in the sources.

Correction, 1 November 2026. The ratio is 97.5%, from 97.4%, and 124.5% before player trading, from 124.1%. Gustavo Sá is now treated as on loan to Olympiacos, not sold. We had recorded a sale on 16 October because Forest list him nowhere; Lusa, citing a source close to the deal, reported a loan, and no report describes a sale. His amortisation now counts, and the £2.0m modelled loss on the sale goes. Omari Hutchinson’s reported loan fee now counts: €3m to €4m, about £3.0m at the middle, set against his amortisation; neither club states it. The sale-profit average is £58.1m, from £57.4m, and player trading is worth 27.1 points, from 26.7. Squad cost is £260.5m, from £259.6m. The range is 87.6% to 99.4%, from 88.4% to 99.7%, and the stress case is 110.5%, from 110.4%. On frozen costs the 2028 test is 100.1%, from 100.0%, the 2029 test 107.9%, from 107.8%, and the 2030 test 124.5%, from 124.1%. The twenty clubs together come to 75.4%, from 75.3%. No threshold is crossed.

Correction, 2 November 2026. The note on Forest’s cup ties named the outlet whose match report evidences the tie with Burnley in August 2023. It is not a source this publication cites, so the note now describes the source without the name. No figure changes.